Liu Shijin: Substantially deepening reform is the best stimulus policy

Liu Shijin: Substantially deepening reform is the best stimulus policy
According to the latest statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of newly diagnosed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world is approaching 2 million, and the WHO recently found that the epidemic has not yet reached its peak.The overseas epidemic continues to spread, and the Chinese economy continues to be under pressure due to this.How to treat the impact of this second wave of overseas epidemic on China’s economy?What is the expected growth of China’s economy in 2020?Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the second wave of shocks will be much longer than the first wave of shocks, and the probability of growth impairment will exceed that of the former. China ‘s economy will have to shift from a conventional growth modelThe “war epidemic growth model” of the period.”Most can achieve a growth of about 3%, which is a big victory.”” Liu Shijin also said that in the case of changes in the growth background, the assessment of growth targets should also be adjusted accordingly.It is recommended to adopt a “relatively relative” assessment method, which is to use the ratio or difference between China’s growth rate and the world’s average growth rate.”If the world growth rate is -2 in 2020.5%, 3% in China, and 5 in relative terms.5% is higher than last year.”In the face of complex domestic and foreign economic indicators, how to position the policy?Liu Shijin suggested that short-term policies should focus on “recovery”, “rescue” and “risk-avoidance”, and the focus of the rescue assistance is on small and medium-sized enterprises and low-income people, thus relying on fiscal policy to exert force.The focus of hedging is to prevent the financial system from being shut down and chaotic due to liquidity tensions. China should have the ability to keep monetary policy normal without having to follow negative interest rates.Liu Shijin did not expect that at this stage to achieve steady economic growth, first and foremost is steady consumption, especially residents’ consumption, while infrastructure investment cannot stabilize the overall situation of China’s economy.So how to promote consumption?He suggested direct subsidies for low-income groups.”(Subsidies) cannot take the form, drizzle, and have a large enough amount to reach the monthly income or consumption level of low-income people.”In the medium and long term, how can reform be used to stimulate economic growth momentum?Liu Shijin believes that substantial deepening of reform is the best stimulus policy.The accelerated development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is the largest structural potential of China’s economic growth. It is necessary to promote the construction of metropolitan areas through the reform of factor markets.”The outstanding problem of infrastructure investment is the wrong place and mechanism of investment.In the metropolitan area, there is little chance of error.”Sauna Night Net: You have been committed to tapping the potential of the Chinese economy through reform.In the medium and long term, how can reform be used to stimulate economic growth momentum?Liu Shijin: Even if the economy recovers better, a hard growth gap will remain.The aforementioned “war epidemic cost discounts” must also be covered by new demand.How to stimulate new growth momentum is a problem to be solved by the medium- and long-term policies that complement the short-term policies.In the next five to ten years, the rapid development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is China’s largest structural potential for economic growth. In a fashionable saying, it is a “new outlet” for China’s economic growth.It is necessary to promote the construction of the metropolitan area with the reform of the factor market.The so-called metropolitan area, in terms of spatial form, is a one-hour commuter circle, or within 50-70 kilometers around the existing core city (different geographical environments have the flexibility to interfere), and the development of small towns or several small cities is connected to each other.Afterwards, a new urban network system was formed.In general, the development of the metropolitan area focuses on the development of the “circle”. By resolving the structural contradictions of core cities, expanding urbanization space, small decentralization, and large concentration, the transformation and upgrading of megacities in large cities are realized.Specifically, it is conducive to the adjustment of industrial structure, especially the manufacturing industry to increase the level of specialization on the basis of cost reduction; it is conducive to the adjustment of the population structure and greatly improves the living environment and quality of life; it is conducive to the balance of work and residence, slowing down congestion, pollution andCommuting pressure; conducive to migrant workers and other immigrants in the city to improve living conditions and access to due basic public services; conducive to driving innovation and green development, and promoting the transformation of production and living, feasible and necessary new development methods.From the perspective of growth momentum, small towns need to build a large number of residential buildings, public infrastructure, and small towns need to be connected by rail transportation. The small towns with industrial clusters must also have new industrial investment, which can almost driveConsumption can also bring a lot of investment.According to preliminary estimates, in the next ten years, the construction year of the metropolitan area will provide at least zero for the national economic growth.5 to 1 individual growth momentum, in addition to responding to the impact of the epidemic, has also provided strong support for the moderate and gradual development of a long period before.Recently, the concept of “new infrastructure” has been hotly speculated. In terms of volume, the main body of infrastructure investment is still the so-called old infrastructure.In fact, regardless of the old infrastructure or the new infrastructure, it is a good infrastructure to invest in the right place.The outstanding problem of infrastructure investment is the wrong place and mechanism of investment.In the metropolitan area, there is little chance of error.Returning to reality, the construction of the metropolitan area faces too many ideas, constraints and constraints in terms of systems, mechanisms and policies.Recently, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued “Opinions on Further Improving the System and Mechanism of Factor-Based Allocation of Factors”. The core is to promote the free flow and market-based allocation of production factors such as land, labor, capital, technology, and data.After the release of the document, the social response was positive and enthusiastic. It can be said that it was the right time to tackle the various institutional mechanisms and policies facing the construction of the metropolitan area.This again shows that substantive deepening of reforms is the best stimulus policy.It is recommended to use the Federal Central Document as an opportunity to launch a package of reform and development plans to promote the construction of the metropolitan area with elementary market reforms, including related cities, focusing on continuous population inflows, developing large cities or urban agglomerations with high potential, and accelerating the reconstruction or revision of the metropolitan areaConstruction plan, and announce it as soon as possible, the construction boosts confidence and stabilizes the expected role; start the construction of the metropolitan area rail transit, communication engineering and other infrastructure construction projects with sufficient preparations at the early stage of the construction scale; prepare the plan, and proceed with the phased construction mainly for the migrant population, especiallyHousing projects for rural population entering the city; promoting agricultural land to the city, transfer of homesteads, selecting some small towns, and carrying out pilot projects for the construction of elderly communities in the core cities to go to the countryside; adjusting household registration policies and other population mobility management policies for migrants in urban areasThe small towns in the neighbouring towns live and work in a favorable environment for employment and entrepreneurship; they have replaced the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and some provincial capital cities with great development potential as comprehensive experimental zones for the reform and development of the metropolitan area, taking the lead in making breakthroughs and obtaining reproducible and scalable experiences.Sauna, Ye Wang Hou Runfang Editor Wang Jinyu proofread Li Ming